THREE late Scratches change the 149th Kentucky Derby Field

By Randy P Brungard

Some of the words from Dan Fogelberg’s song: “Run for the Roses”, describes the Kentucky Derby as “the chance of a lifetime, in a lifetime of chance”. This Saturday 20 Thoroughbreds, all born in 2020, will get their only chance to win the most recognized race in the World. The Derby is restricted to three year olds, and they had to qualify through a points system designed to bring the best of their age group to Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky on the first Saturday in May.

NBC will air the 149th consecutive running of the first leg of the Triple Crown, with post time at approximately 6:57 p.m. The Derby is 1 1/4 miles long, with the field passing the finish line on the one mile oval track the first time after having started 1/4 mile away. They then race into the Clubhouse turn, often jostling for position trying to get close to the inside rail to avoid covering more ground than necessary.. They then run down the backstretch, which allows more opportunity to secure a good spot before going into the Far Turn.

Once they hit the top of the Home Stretch, it is a race to the finish line. You will see some of the front runners begin to fade, especially if the first half mile is run in under 46 seconds. In a race of this length, the jockeys need to let their mounts get into a comfortable rhythm, Most thoroughbreds of this caliber can cover every 1/8th of a mile in around 12 seconds.. The entire race should last just over two minutes, and a  consistent pace, combined with a relatively unimpeded trip, is very important in the final outcome.

The “morning line” betting favorite, at 3-1 odds, is the 2022 Juvenile (then age 2) champion, Forte. He has won 6 of his 7 career starts, and will exit post #15. The second choice at 5-1 is Tapit Trice, one of 4 gray horses in this year’s Derby. He has won 4 of 5 starts, and leaves post #5. Both of these horses should be somewhere in mid-pack in the early part of the race.

Pennsylvania born Angel Of Empire has won 4 of 6, will leave gate #14, and at 8-1 odds hopefully will be the first PA bred since Smarty Jones in 2004 to win the Derby .He has a serious chance and I actually expect his odds to drop by post time.

Practical Move. winner of 4 of 7, is on a 3 race winning streak. Coincidentally, his 10-1 odds matched his post position #10. However, he was scratched (removed) from the race on Thursday after spiking a small fever. You will now see post # 11 next to post #9 on top of the starting gate, with no #10 shown.

Also checking it at 10-1 is Japanese runner, Derma Sotogake. He has won 4 of 8 and will try to be near the front in the early stages from his post #17.

Two horses are listed at 12-1, front running Kingsbarns, who has won all 3 of his starts, and Two Phils, winner of 4 of 8. Checking in at 15-1 are Verifying, Mage, and Jace’s Road. All 3 of these horses have legitimate shots to finish in the top 3.

If you like playing longer shots, Confidence Game, at 20-1, is creating quite a bit of buzz with the way he has been training. He has placed in the top 3 in 6 of his 7 starts, but has not raced since February 25th. Skinner is also 20-1, and just made the original 20 horse field cut, as he has the least amount of qualifying points with a win and 3 thirds in 6 starts.

Two grays, Rocket Can (2 wins) and Hit Show (3 wins and a 2nd in 5 starts), along with Lord Miles ( 2 of 5) and Disarm, are all 30-1  Despite only having one victory, Disarm has been competitive in all of his 5 starts, finishing either 2nd or 3rd in his other 4 races. Unfortunately Lord Miles was also a scratch on Thursday, so post #19 also will not appear on the starting gate.

Raise Cain, Sun Thunder, the gray Reincarnate, and the 2nd Japanese horse, Continuar, were all 50-1. Continuar was the third late scratch late scratch. Reincarnate is the most likely of these remaining three horses to be near the front early, and his best chance is if the pace is not to fast early on.

The three scratches have been replaced by also-eligibles (AE) Cyclone Mischief, assigned #21, Mandarin Hero, another Japanese trained horse in this race, and King Russell.  Mandarin Hero recently lost by a mere nose to Practical Move, one of the scratches, in the Santa Anita Derby in early April. He  will probably get some serious attention at the betting windows, and wear saddle cloth #22. These two AEs will break from two of the further outside holes in the starting gate The most recent AE is King Russell, who will be on the post furthest from the rail, wearing #23.If there are any more scratches before Saturday’s 6:57 p.m. start, there are no other replacements.

Enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports this Saturday. “And down the stretch they come”!!!