Down River

By John Lipez

Our Population:
Did you see the recent story about the projected decline in rural Pennsylvania’s population? The Capital-Star story said the population in the state’s rural counties is projected to decline 5.8% percent over the next 30 years, the state as a whole with a modest 1.6% growth rate, due to an expected increase in urban population.

48 of the state’s 67 counties are classified as rural, Clinton County among them. And most all these rural counties see a projected loss of population over the next three decades. But guess what? Clinton County is not among them.

According to the Pennsylvania State Data Center, Clinton County should see an uptick of 0.7% percent over that time frame while western neighbor Centre County, recession-proof because of the economic engine we call Penn State, will see a growth rate of 12.3%. And Lycoming County, to our east (where there were those who predicted Williamsport would be the next Houston when the Marcellus Shale gas boom hit), is expected to see a drop of 1.6%.

So for Clinton County, it could be worse. Look no further than other nearby counties: Cameron projected to see a drop of 9.7%, Clearfield down 7.3% and Potter, down 9.5%. Union County, like Clinton and Centre along Interstate 80, is projected to see an increase of 15%, one of the highest in the state.

The map, which you can find from earlier this month on therecord-online, shows that only two counties west of centrally located Clinton County, are to see growth over the next 30 years: Erie, with a projected increase of 0.3% and Indiana at 10.9.

Clinton County’s projected population growth continues a longstanding trend:
1970 – 37,721
1983 – 38,836
1999 – 36,937
2012 – 39,739
2021 – 37,465

What’s that telling us? How about the definition of stability. We see the same thing when we look at the numbers from our favorite county seat, Lock Haven; although that number is trending down: 9,244 in 1990; a high of 9,973 in 2012; and 8,239 for 2021.

But according to Lock Haven City Manager Greg Wilson, the most recent information from the American Community Census from the US Census Bureau, shows a city population of 8,458, an uptick from a couple years ago.

Asked if the decreased enrollment at Commonwealth University – Lock Haven might be a factor in the city/county population drop, the city manager told Down River that while not the only contributing factor in a smaller city, CU-Lock Haven’s enrollment does have an impact on Lock Haven’s population. He noted Lock Haven each year receives a donation for city services provided from the university equal to $1 per student registered for the fall semester. In 2013, Lock Haven received $4,972, this year the amount of $2,716, a decline of 45%.

As to the recent story about the projected population decline in rural PA, members of the bipartisan Center for Rural Pennsylvania met last week to find long-term solutions to help sustain rural communities.

As for policy implications, state Sen. Judy Schwank (D-Berks) said, “The demand for more senior care, coupled with the previously mentioned decrease in working-age adults, present a lot of challenges” for the state, the financial pressures from these changes “especially pronounced in rural areas.”

Speakers included Rep. Eddie Day Pashinski from Luzerne County who said there needs to be a discussion now, stating it will take the efforts of nonprofits, local officials and other stakeholders to combat the trend.

It’s fair to say Clinton County and Lock Haven are taking a pro-active approach to buck the population decline trend. County commissioner Angela Harding has spearheaded the county’s properly incentive-laden locate-to-Clinton County program aimed to attract out-of-county prospective employees. Lock Haven City Council has offered up investments in quality of life and space programs in the city and City Planner Abbey Roberts has found ways to bring federal and state grant money back to town to support those initiatives.

Put those efforts together with the work of the Clinton County Economic Partnership, a more forward-looking Keystone Central School District and a more aggressive student recruiting program at CU-Lock Haven and one gets the sense Clinton County won’t be going away anytime soon.