Down the Stretch: 148th Consecutive Kentucky Derby Saturday

By Randy Brungard

This year marks the 148th consecutive running of the Kentucky Derby. First held in 1875, it typically occurs on the first Saturday in May, and is restricted to 3-year-old Thoroughbreds. NBC will start broadcasting at 5 p.m., with the race scheduled to start at 6:45. Field size is restricted to a maximum of 20 starters that have qualified based on a points system, to help ensure the best entries run in the most recognizable race in the World. Only four horses born outside the U.S.A. have won the Derby, with the last two coming from Canada in 1964 and 1983. Japan will try once again to change that number with Crown Pride. He traveled from Japan on March 17th to Dubai and won a qualifying race, then shipped to Louisiville, Kentucky on March 30th. 

Churchill Downs, with its signature Twin Spires on top of the grandstand, has a one-mile, oval shaped track, with the length of the final stretch run being 1234.5 feet. The Derby distance is 1 1/4 miles, so the horses start about 1/4 mile (440 yards/1320 feet) from the finish line. The added distance requires a straight extension, often referred to as a chute, attached to the main track. The added distance also allows the horses to have more positioning time before the “Clubhouse Turn.” With 20 starters, there is a lot of congestion trying to get closer to the inside rail as the jockeys try to save ground before going around that first turn. Once the early position is established and the first turn is completed, the horses will travel down the “Backside”, which is farthest from the seating area. They will then enter the “Far Turn”, rounding it before hitting the “Top of the Home Stretch.” From there, it is a race to the Finish Line.

Early favorites for this year’s wide open Derby include only 3 horses at less than 10-1 odds: Zandon at 3-1, who likely will be closing late; Epicenter at 7-2, who should be in a more forward, early position; and Messier at 8-1, who also should be prominent early in the race.   

Next in favoritism are Mo Donegal at 10-1 and likely will be trailing early; White Abarrio also at 10-1 and should be mid-pack early; and lightly raced Taiba,at 12-1, but undefeated in his 2 career starts. The remaining 14 entries are listed at 20-1 or higher.

Tiz The Bomb deserves serious consideration, IF he can turn his Turf form and closing style onto the dirt surface of Churchill Downs. He has more starts, 8, than any other horse, with 5 wins. Cyberknife is also a serious threat, with 3 wins and 2 seconds in 6 starts. If the Japanese invader, Crown Pride, can keep his impetuous nature under control, his 3 wins in 4 starts lends credence to his human connections shipping him over halfway around the World.

Simplification, Smile Happy, and Classic Causeway all have been previously touted and should be near the front early. Zozos, Charge It, Pioneer of Medina, and Summer Is Tomorrow also will try to be near the lead early. The question is if they can get good, early position, and then maintain enough energy to survive the 1 1/4 mile Derby distance, which will be the longest race any of these three-year-olds have ever raced. Only Epicenter and Crown Pride have won at 1 3/16ths of a mile, whereas all the other  prep races  were 1 1/8th  of a mile or shorter. Each 1/16th is an additional 110 yards, and many races are won or lost due to horses tiring in that final 110 yards.

Tawny Port has a mid-pack style, whereas BarberRoad and Happy Jack will have to get a good trip based on their closing style. All the closers will be trying to pass tiring horses without losing any momentum. Wide trips around either of the two turns also will come into play, so the race to the first turn will be especially important in order to save ground 

Since the Derby is limited to 20 entries, there are two “also eligible” horses that will only get in the starting gate this Saturday if someone is scratched out of the race in the next few days. Those two are Rich Strike and  Rattle N Roll. Ethereal Road was scratched Friday and Rich Strike, the first horse on the also eligible “AI” list, drew in to post position #20. Rich Strike previously ran in a $30,000 maiden claiming race,  his only win in 7 starts, and would it be a shocker if he won the Derby.

And Down the Stretch They Come!!!