A numbers game By: Greg Maresca

By: Greg Maresca
Football may be a game of inches and even tush pushes (for now) but like any business, it is the numbers that ultimately narrate the game’s story. Numbers reveal objectively if something is getting better or worse. Numbers are the language of business and make no mistake, the NFL is a business.

Enter Penn State’s Julian Fleming.

Fleming ended his high school gridiron days as Pennsylvania’s career leader in touchdown catches (77) and receiving yards (5,514). As a senior, Fleming had 72 catches for 1,582 yards and 22 touchdowns while leading the Southern Columbia Tigers to their 10th PIAA state championship. Rivals.com named Fleming as the best wide receiver and the 14th best player in the 2020 high school recruiting class. Fleming was also a finalist for Gatorade National Player of the Year.

The five-star recruit garnered attention from Penn State like few players before him. Penn State head coach James Franklin even wore a Nittany Lions jersey with Fleming’s No. 4 at one of his high school football games. However, it was the Ohio State Buckeyes where Fleming eventually committed joining a wide receiver corps in Columbus that had more than their fair share of the nation’s best receivers that included high NFL draftees: Marvin Harrison Jr., Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Chris Olave.

Despite his pedigree and grand expectations, Fleming struggled at Ohio State with injuries throughout his freshman and sophomore years. A starter in 20 of the 23 games he played for the Buckeyes, Fleming finished with 79 catches for 963 yards and seven touchdowns. His best season came as a junior resulting in 34 receptions for 533 yards and six touchdowns. In 2023, his production dipped noticeably to 270 receiving yards and no touchdowns. It was a solid collegiate career for the five-star player considering he never was the first option during his tenure as a Buckeye.

Thanks to the overzealous NCAA COVID-19 response, Fleming’s class gained an extra year of college eligibility provided the Ohio State graduate wanted it. Fleming reportedly debated submitting for the NFL Draft last year before finally deciding to enter the NCAA transfer portal. That trip through the transfer portal that is more of a name, image and likeness vortex than anything else resulted in a soft landing in State College, Pennsylvania as a Nittany Lion. Such a unique opportunity allowed Fleming to play for two successful and rival Big Ten programs in back-to-back years.

Throughout his one-year odyssey at Penn State, Fleming was the consummate teammate and fan enigma. He even relinquished his longtime career number 4 jersey during the transition in an initial show of goodwill. His final stats of 14 receptions for 176 yards, and one touchdown may not have been what he and the Nittany Lion nation had hoped for. Nonetheless, at 6’2” and 208 pounds, Fleming was considered an effective down-field blocker something that may not show up in the stat column but is certainly revealed on game film and respected in the locker room.

This year at the annual NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis, Indiana 329 players were invited. However, Fleming was not one of them. This marque event showcases draft-eligible players by testing their speed, strength and agility in specially designed drills that also include mental, medical and drug testing.

40-yard dash: Measures speed and acceleration.
Bench press: 225-pound rep out.
Vertical jump: Assesses explosiveness and power.
Broad jump: Measures explosive power and distance.
Shuttle drills (20-yard and 60-yard): Evaluate quickness and lateral movement.
3-cone drill: Assesses agility and change-of-direction speed.
Position-specific drills: Some drills are tailored to specific positions, such as throwing drills for quarterbacks or catching drills for wide receivers.

Provided a player is not invited to the combine, many pro scouts travel to university campuses for what is known as the NFL “Pro Day” showcase circuit. According to Greg Kincaid Penn State’s Assistant Athletic Director for Football Communications and Content, the difference between the NFL combine and Pro Day is “ours is a little more accessible and there are more guys (PSU players) participating.”

Even smaller schools like Ball State, Western Michigan, Delaware, Central Arkansas, Memphis, Alabama A&M, William & Mary, UTSA, Sacramento State, and Nevada had one this year. Bloomsburg University hosted one in 2014.

Because of the familiar setting on Pro Day, the host team coaches work with their own players. Not only are the scouts taking note of your skill set and work ethic, but also how well you take instruction.

The NFL scouts also take the time to measure the players because all too often the sizes provided by the host school are embellished, along with their 40-yard dash times. According to one longtime scout, enhancement of players’ physical attributes throughout Division I college football “is the rule rather than the exception.”

Besides Fleming other players participating in Penn State’s edition of Pro Day included safeties Kevin Winston Jr. and Jaylen Reed, linebacker Kobe King, cornerback Jalen Kimber and defensive linemen Jvon J-Thomas, Coziah Izzard and Amin Vanover and offensive lineman Sal Wormley.

Penn State’s top two prospects, defensive end Abdul Carter and tight end Tyler Warren chose not to participate. Both Carter and Warren are projected first round picks.

The NFL intangibles with Fleming are as a possession receiver, proficient down-field blocker and third option. He possesses good size, decent speed and footwork, who grades well as a blocker with dependable hands in what scouting parlance likes to refer to as athleticism.

The upcoming 2025 NFL Draft consumes two days April 24-26 and will take place in Green Bay, Wisconsin where 253 players will be selected.

Longtime sports prognosticator Ken Seay took plenty of heat when he emerged on the football forecaster scene 30-years ago when he audaciously predicted that former PSU running back and the NFL’s number one overall pick in the 1995 draft, Ki-Jana Carter would be a bust.

Since then, Seay has been sought out for his observations and recently visited Holuba Hall for PSU’s Pro-Day and took the time to weigh in on local PSU product Julian Fleming. Seay was direct in saying his best route to an NFL roster spot is via free agency. Seay said Fleming and his agent will be able to find the NFL team that best works for both parties which would provide him with a much greater opportunity to land an NFL roster spot akin to another former Southern player, Henry Hynoski. It certainly worked for Hynoski as he would earn a Super Bowl ring with the New York Giants in his rookie campaign.

With PSU’s Pro Day now history and the numbers game over for the players, the waiting game has officially kicked off.