Down River – Oct. 22, 2015

No Crystal Ball:

We don’t have an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, a New York Times/CBS News poll, not even a Quinnipiac University poll to guide us here in Clinton County as November 3 draws ever nearer.

So if you’re looking for insights on the fast approaching municipal election, we don’t have much to go on, other than resurrect the primary results and see if anything can be read into those in our county where the registration between the two major parties is fairly even.

Here’s something to consider: While final registration numbers are due on Friday of this week, at last check a week ago there were 8,931 Democrats and 8,810 Republicans eligible to vote next month; in the primary Democrats had 8,955 eligible, compared to 8,667 Republicans so the Grand Old Party has closed the gap since May. The bigger question, of course, is how many of those registered actually bother to vote.

May results saw 4,544 Democrats vote for commissioner. Subtracting out write-ins, they voted this way: Joel Long, 1,350; Paul Conklin, 1,292; Vince Tarantella, 935; Richard Morris, 899. Unless you live under a rock on Boom Island, you know that incumbent Long and challenger Conklin are their party’s two nominees on Nov. 3.

The GOP meanwhile had in effect an uncontested May primary; the two incumbents Pete Smeltz and Jeff Snyder were the only candidates on the ballot and received 1,995 and 1,904 votes respectively. Add in Republican write-ins and there were 4,020 GOP votes cast for commissioner.

What does it all mean? Where do those Democratic Tarantella and Morris votes go? Keep in mind voters can only vote for two candidates and three of the four finalists will be elected. Those primary numbers tell us there is a lot of flux at work here to try and discern what will happen in a week and a half or so.

And might the numbers from November of 2011 be helpful, a year where we saw a whack-a-molee race with six (six!) announced candidates?

Smeltz and Snyder swept to a 1-2 finish in their first bid for the Garden Building, Smeltz with 3,888 votes, Snyder with 3,842. Long, who had finished number one in his first successful commissioner campaign in 2007, finished third and in the money with 2,724 votes. Richard Morris tried the independent route in Ought-Seven and finished fourth with 1,723 votes. Incumbent Democrat Adam Coleman was fifth with 969 and Les Robinson, who ran a write-in campaign, was way back in the pack.

Coleman later cried foul, saying his efforts at re-election had been besmirched by coverage of his arrest in the Lock Haven Express (he was ultimately exonerated of a charge against him). He filed suit against the paper and that civil court action is still tied up somewhere between the large courtroom of the county courthouse and the Ogden Corporation (Express owners) headquarters in Wheeling. Perhaps the slow-turning wheels of justice are having trouble surmounting the Cresson Mountain while en route to West Virginia.

So how will this November’s relatively tepid four-way contest for three chairs/desks in the Garden Building play out? Who will be left standing out in the third floor hallway? Tune in therecord-online in that very same Garden Building sometime after the 8 o’clock poll closing on the night of November 3 and we’ll all find out together.

The Afterglow:

The Clinton County community is still trying to sift through the meaning and potential consequences of the mammoth natural gas-to-electricity facility proposed/planned for Renovo,

We like to use the term “proposed/planned” to describe the status of the Renovo Energy Center project; it’s not a sure thing but there is no doubt the Bechtel folks and friends want this three-quarters of a billion dollar project to come to fruition, otherwise they would not have committed tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars already. It appears it would take something cataclysmic for the REC not to happen.

Let’s turn to Clinton County Economic Partnership chief operating officer Mike Flanagan and his sports analogies for an update: about a year ago the project was “on first base.” Now it’s “on the back nine.” If Down River can speculate a year and a half out, ideally by the second quarter of 2017 we’ll all be walking up to the 18th green and heading for the clubhouse.

Given the timeline for construction, if all goes according to plan, that beginning in the second quarter of 2017, here are some things we’ve gleaned so far: If you’re wondering about the future of the rail shops still on site, their demolition would not occur until the first quarter of 2017, this after all hurdles have been cleared and as a prelude to actual construction.

And no, according to people who know about this stuff, there has been no upsurge as of yet in property acquisitions in the Renovo area. You know if and when the project happens, those up to 700 people involved in the extended construction phase are going to need a place to stay. Those knowledgeable in this say some of those short-term construction employees will stay in motor homes, some will rent while others will stay in a hotel and head home for the weekends.

We’re also hearing reports there could be renewed natural gas drilling activity in the county’s northern and western tier, that some of that kind of work is taking place north of the county now and may be heading Clinton County’s way. Another source says that “gas people” hope the pace of county drilling picks up in a year or so.

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